Even if you
could "time the market," that strategy would most benefit
first-time buyers.
You see,
people who already have a home usually need to sell it in
order to come up with the down payment for their next
home. Even if they don't, they would have to carry
the debt and obligations on two homes at the same time.
This can create financial hardship, even when you rent out
the previous home. There are maintenance costs,
renters don't always make their payments on time, the rent
may not cover the mortgage and other costs, and sometimes
the property may be vacant.
>So if you
are a move-up buyer and want to purchase your next home
during a depressed market, you generally have to sell your
current home during that same depressed market. If
you want to sell during a boom, then you also have to
purchase during the same boom.
It tends to equal out.
Finally,
suppose you are a first-time buyer and wait think the end
of a boom is near? If you guess wrong, are you going
to wait...and wait...and wait...till the next depressed
market? If so, you could miss out on loads of
depreciation...
...and that
is assuming you guess right about your market timing.
In 1996, when the home market was struggling, who would
have predicted what the next seven years would bring?
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